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Post by gabochido on Dec 5, 2011 18:44:32 GMT -5
Aside from the expected price drop of cards from the MM block like Invigorate, Daze and Snuff Out, a lot of other pauper cards drop in value, at least according to the price list of MTGO Traders and Marlonbots. Snap and Manamorphose, for example, went from 1tx to about 0.3tx. I wonder why this would be. Any ideas?
Also I found rather surprising that both brainstorm and gush have gone up in price even though they are in MM. I'm hoping once the release events kick off, they'll come down fast.
yugularedit: Edited the subject/header by adding (in MtG:O)
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bobblyigg
New Member
I've got a raging Brainstorm and I'm not afraid to use it
Posts: 47
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Post by bobblyigg on Dec 5, 2011 21:49:16 GMT -5
Snap is the easy one. It was only inflated because of Esper Storm. Now that the deck is neutered, the demand for the card has bottomed out. I'm guessing Manamorphose was inflated partly due to modern since it was in a widely played set and tons of copies are available. People have their playsets now so demand for it has dropped as well.
Brainstorm and Gush are both played in formats outside of pauper and were available in smaller quantities so their prices have always been high. Their price spikes are probably due to being in the new Delver decks. I would definitely hold off on buying them until the price drops back down due to Masques reprints.
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Post by gabochido on Dec 6, 2011 11:27:33 GMT -5
I noticed that Exclude has been rising in price since the delver deck became popular, even though there are only 2 copies of it in most implementations. I had been trying to buy some from other players at a decent price but in a moment of panic but I went out and bought 2 of them. I feel a little dirty now and it could be that they'll go back down to the 2tx they used to cost (they're at 3.8tx now and only the big bots seem to have them) but I was afraid it wouldn't be happening any time soon.
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Post by RockBass on Dec 8, 2011 13:09:40 GMT -5
Well, Invigorate and Snuff Out took huge dives as of yesterday, at least at the bots I was looking at. But those two only had very small prints in the Garruk vs. Liliana decks, which drove the prices up to begin with.
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Post by yugular on Dec 11, 2011 5:38:45 GMT -5
What is the best way to find cheap prices for these "rare" commons? Like Invigorate, Gorilla Shaman etc.
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Post by grumpyoldgamer on Dec 11, 2011 7:38:35 GMT -5
The prices at most retailers is usually pretty much the same. Mostly I look at MtGTraders, Marlon and Cardhoarder, and prices are fairly similar. Arguably, these stores are some of the most expensive, but... y'a know.
I think that the best option for those is good old user-on-user trading. Seems the best way to get fair prices.
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Post by gabochido on Dec 12, 2011 11:24:45 GMT -5
Pauper prices keep dropping in general, except for a few key cards: Hydroblast went up to 2.5 and Lotus Petal is up to a whooping 7.5. Not sure what's causing the Lotus Petal to continue its upward streak, but the Hydroblast is definitely due to the popularity of the delver deck and of course, there's always legacy affecting the price of cards like these.
Cards for the Cloudpost and storm decks are down (other than Lotus petal) though I have no idea if they will go further down but it seems like a good time to grab those invasion lands. The familiars for the storm familiar deck are also falling and will probably continue to fall as I don't see that deck out there much.
I played an MM limited event and it totally sucked. I think that's the general experience for most people so I don't think that many MM boosters are going to be opened. MM will ONLY be available for purchase until the 21st of December so this makes me think that prices for the MM staples like Invigorate and Daze aren't going to get much lower than the 1.25 and 2 they are at respectively.
Unfortunately, this also means that we'll start to see infect decs again as people start to pick up those invigorates again.
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Post by RockBass on Dec 12, 2011 13:13:32 GMT -5
gabochido: MM draft blows. I found that one out the hard way. yugular: I found the best way is to just have about 3 or 4 bots that you check on a regular basis. Keep them saved as buddies and make sure they keep credit for portions of tickets. You still pay a large sum for some of the cards, like Lotus Petal and Gorilla Shaman, but I just remind myself that it's cheaper than standard, and the cards won't rotate. FYI: my go to bots are cardshop and cardwarehouse. Also, the abugames ones are competitive, but then again, they do pay me to say that.
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Post by yugular on Dec 17, 2011 8:24:34 GMT -5
How is the pricetag on Daze at the moment? And how it has evolved in the past weeks?
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Post by gabochido on Dec 19, 2011 23:14:06 GMT -5
Daze is currently hovering around 2.75. I don't expect it to go down, at least not due to MM limited events. If the blue delver decks become less popular it will definitely affect the price.
Invigorate stayed at 1.25 since last week. I expect that the moment they announce it ISN'T banned, it will go up as people start to buy it with less concern. That is, unless it has been shown that infect has a bad matchup against delver decks.
Lotus petal is now at 8.25, making me feel less bad for purchasing my playset at 6 each. Many blue cards, including exclude and hydroblast also continue to go up.
White weenie has always been a cheap deck to build and it is currently as cheap as ever, since its most expensive card, standard bearer, collapsed with the recent recession of infect decks. I expect it to go back up though.
As expected, the price of the invasion saclands collapsed and now the most expensive one costs just over 1 tix. I've began seeing some grixis storm decks using the MM depletion lands (which are at .2tx right now) and I personally built a version of it and found it to work pretty well.
The metagame seems to be dominated by blue delver and IzzetPost right now though it would be interesteing to analyze which of those two wins on the matchup.
In general, pauper prices have been dropping for some reason, so I think this is a good time to stock up, specially on those less popular decks like Dead dog, mono green post, mono green stompy and green/white enchantments. I'm going to try to get the cards for those when I have a chance as they are fun decks to play (but have bad matchups against the current metagame).
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Post by gabochido on Dec 21, 2011 13:28:48 GMT -5
I'll be trying to keep track of pauper rises and fallers in MTGO and maintain a Top 5 list. The prices I use will be for the cheapest version of any given card, so for example there is a gorilla shaman that costs 9 dollars, but for these lists, I only consider the ME2 version which only costs 4.52. Prices are from Marlonbots, note that there are many other bots that have cheaper prices (usually because they are behind in the trend).
For today the top 5 cards are: 1 - Lotus Petal 8.25 2 - Gorilla Shaman 4.52 3 - Exclude 3.93 4 - Cloud of Faeries 3.70 5 - Hydroblast 3.10
Risers: Two notable risers in the last two weeks are Cloud of Faeries (from 1.75 to 3.10) and Snap (from .33 to 1.78). Its interesting that Snap first plummeted from 1 to .33 before going on the rise.
Fallers: Most of the other expensive pauper cards are falling. Most notable as I mentioned earlier are Standard bearer (from 2.5 to .86), the invasion sac lands, and diabolic edict (from 2 to .64).
Predictions and suggestions: I notice that innocent blood is getting used in the recent surge of blue/black post decks. Its at .6 right now, was at .4 on Monday and I think it will continue rising. Snap is still being sold at .7tx on some bots. If you don't have either of these cards and plan to play them in the near future, I recommend snapping them up.
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Post by yugular on Dec 21, 2011 14:04:37 GMT -5
Good stuff gabo! If you really have the passion to do that kind of research I would like to make a new thread for this project that has good OP that gets updated with the data you collect. I can help you maintaining that etc. We can do that in January once you have already done this few weeks.
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Post by gabochido on Jan 12, 2012 1:31:47 GMT -5
Hello everyone, I hope you all had a pleasant holiday break. I'm back with the latest financial update.
First of all, the Top 5 list for the most expensive pauper cards as of the 11th of January according to Marlonbots.
1. Gorilla Shaman 4.36 2. Lotus Petal 4.23 3. Serrated Arrows 4.00 4. Exclude 3.93 5. Hydroblast 3.4
Its nice to see that for now, Pauper is truly a cheap format with the most expensive card costing just over 4tix.
Fallers The biggest faller was Lotus Petal going from 8.25 last year down by 4 tix to 4.23. This was due to the Tempest block sealed events which brought in a large number of commons from that block and also due to the fact that both Storm and Infect, the decks that use this card have been greatly reduced in the metagame, surpassed by Post and Delver variants. All cards from the Tempest block and Urza block went down in general as there were cheap queued sealed events for both those blocks. Along side Lotus Petal we have Diabolic Edict, Rolling Thunder, Rancor, Cloud of Faeries and Snap as notable card going down. In addition there was one card from the Mercadian Masques block to hit rock bottom: Snuff Out. While most of the other useful MM cards managed to maintain their value after the initial drop, Snuff out went down to bulk prices and is now available for a measly .06 tix.
Risers Going up we have notably Serrated Arrows. I assume this card is being put in sideboard against the delver decks while at the same time the delver decks, which continue to be popular, are using it as sideboard against any aggro deck. Hydroblast continues to increase its price, also helped by the delver decks. A few of other interesting risers are Crimson Acolyte, going from 1.5 to 2.6, Accumulated Knowledge starting at 1 and moving to 1.4 and Standard bearer, recovering from .84 to 1.62.
Predictions and Suggestions I'm thinking right now is a good time to get those Tempest and Urza block pauper cards you've wanted. I doubt they'll get much cheaper. The Mercadian Masques events have also stopped so I'll assume cards from those blocks won't get much cheaper either. In my previous post I suggested getting innocent Bloods. They continued to climb a bit up to .8tx so that wasn't a bad suggestion. I totally punted on the snap though. I should have considered the Urza sealed events that were coming up. I also underestimated just how much the tempest events would bring down prices otherwise I would have sold all my lotus petals! I assume the same will happen when Mirage or Invasion Block events happen and I'm sure they'll bring some of those Out of Print drafts for those blocks soon enough so I would hold of buying any expensive cards from them (crypt Rats, Quirion Ranger, Invasion sac lands, familiars, etc.) unless you really need them right now.
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Post by dougbiss on Jan 12, 2012 8:09:46 GMT -5
You may want to re-evaluate that price on Serrated Arrows. That's the DDD version you are quoting, which is not reliably in stock. The TSB version is going for 7+ in almost all places. I can't get on to MTGO to check right now, but I'd be surprised if Marlon actually had any DDD. They don't go out of their way to stock things to the right of the promo tab.
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Post by gabochido on Jan 12, 2012 12:19:01 GMT -5
Thanks for the heads up. I actually quote the DDD version because I thought that was the more popular version as those were the ones I was able to get last year.
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