If you have a balanced deck (one where the mana, on average, is well weighed to allow you to cast your spells) and are playing a deck of equal strength (50% win rate) you can roughly divide your draws (ALL the cards you draw in a game, not just your opening hand) like this:
10% Can't win 20% Bad draws 40% Average draws 20% Good Draws 10% Nut Draw
In general magic: the gathering is a game where you need to play for the long run to see how you stand against everyone else. A good percentage of games will actually be on equal standing regarding draws (average vs average, good vs good). However, another good portion of the time will have a one level difference (good vs average, average vs bad) and thats where the really good player will shine against the bad player and lead a lesser draw into a victory.
In my experience, a really bad player will only beat a really good player when the really good player gets one of those can't win draws AND the bad player gets at least a good draw. However, playing 2 out of 3 games is generally enough to get past most variance (so a very bad player will almost never beat a very good player 2 games out of 3).
Because of variance, its impossible to get a 100% of wins, but that is never what you should aim for because you'll just be disappointed.
Last Edit: Feb 7, 2012 16:05:45 GMT -5 by gabochido
For a great source of information on the Pauper format check out Pauper's Cage!
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